The Call @ Hedgeye | Friday, March 1, 2024 [REPLAY]

Watch the replay Below

TICKERS DISCUSSED LONGS: STKL, PRGO, UTZ, WYNN, BYON, CWH, REAL, LFST SHORTS: BYND, SG, PGNY, COF, DFS, SYF, AXP, MPW, DE, AGCO, LNN, CF, NTR, PLUG, FUBO

broadcast summary

Restaurants & Cannabis: Howard Penney - 00:01:10

• Short – Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND): After ripping up 40% this week on a squeeze, BYND announced today they will not be filing their 10K. BYND remains a short.
• Short – Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG): +6% comp, +5% price, +1% mix, conference call all bullish around infinite kitchen = higher margins. One question no one asked about was what happens to depreciation when this equipment goes in, answer is it will largely offset all headcount reduction efforts. SG remains a short.

Consumer Staples: Daniel Biolsi - 00:03:52

• Long – SunOpta, Inc. (STKL): Sold off a bad business the Street didn’t fully appreciate and in early innings of the turnaround, we still think shares can double from here; STKL remains a long.
• Long – Perrigo Company plc (PRGO): One off issue is not a sustainable impairment; we see it as an opportunity to get Long and a transitory challenge that the new CEO is fixing; PRGO remains a long.
• Long Bench – Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ): UTZ guided to a beat and raise with Organic sales +3% or better, adj EBITDA +5-8%, and Adj EPS to grow +16-21% above consensus expectations. Management will use the proceeds from the sale to pay down debt. The setup for 2024 is the best the company has had in years with the supply chain and the inflationary surge. Management’s initial guide should prove to be the base to start the year. UTZ remains on the Long Bench.

Gaming, Lodging & Leisure: Sean Jenkins - 00:07:45

• Macau GGR; Long – Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN): Fed data headline number a little light relative to expectations, due in part to less visibility in the market, but we see as a continuation of an improving trend. Combination of Jan/Feb -20% a little lighter than Dec GGR, but setup better looking forward so should continue to improve following Chinese New Year. Concerns over the historical comps suggesting not as strong doesn’t reflect the change in the mix of no longer having those historical VIP customers suggesting underlying strength. WYNN remains a long with ~50% of consolidated EBITDA from Macau.

Retail: Brian McGough - 00:15:09

• Long – Beyond, Inc. (BYON): Webcast with Exec Chairman Marcus Lemonis and Marc Cohodes today at 12:30pmET. Will also discuss Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CWH), which remains on the long bench. BYON remains a long.
• Long – The RealReal, Inc. (REAL): Blowout quarter, restructured 2025 debt, posted positive EBITDA for first time since the company went public, HUGE inflection point. There are all indications this company is going to make it after many investors feared BK risk. REAL remains a long.

Health Care: Tom Tobin - 00:24:18

• Short Bench – Progyny, Inc. (PGNY): Tracking data reflects # of providers has fallen off, notable callout. PGNY remains a short.
• Long – LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST): Demand piece + in-network trends both improving, flipping positive from a Quad factor exposure perspective. LFST remains a long.

Healthcare Policy: Emily Evans - 00:29:17

• Cannabis Study: Not a great study, but one that is making the rounds suggest that people that take/smoke cannabis are 25% more likely to suffer a cardiac event.

Macro, Housing & Financials: Josh Steiner - 00:33:35

• Consumer Credit; Short – Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Synchrony Financial (SYF) & American Express Company (AXP): Consumer credit trends are stabilizing, getting less bad; however, in the short-term there is an event risk. The CFPB is going to issue final ruling around credit card late fees before the State of the Union address next Thursday. Expected to rule current 40% late fee should be cut by 80% to ~8%. This would significantly impact interest income derived from late fees, which in many cases account for over 25% of interest income at these credit card names. COF, DFS, SYF & AXP remain shorts.

REITs: Rob Simone - 00:42:49

• Short – Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW): Released their 10K last night. Rob put out a note highlighting the key changes to the document, which includes much of the risk section being rewritten. MPW remains a short.

Industrials & Materials: Jay Van Sciver - 00:49:52

• Ag Equipment & Ferts; Short – Deere & Company (DE), AGCO Corporation (AGCO), Lindsay Corporation (LNN), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), & Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Van Sciver is presenting an Ag Equipment & Ferts Black Book Update today, March 1st at 2:00pmET. With corn, soybean, wheat, & ethanol prices down 20-to-40% year-over-year, the Street needs to recalibrate expectations for Ag related companies. Will dive into biodiesels. DE, AGCO, LNN, CF, & NTR remain shorts.
• Short – Plug Power Inc. (PLUG): Print out this morning. 10K released prior to print removing the going concern language in this 10K release. Due in part to selling $1.3Bn of stock for cash. PLUG remains a short.

Communications & Software: Andrew Freedman - 00:55:10

• Short – FuboTV Inc. (FUBO): Stock up on headline EBITDA beat, sequential subscriber growth deceleration, guided FY24 subscriber growth guide to only 2.8% and margins up on GAAP basis, but when adding costs back get a 0% gross margin subscriber business. GAAP operating loss of -$280mm. FUBO remains a short.

Macro Policy: JT Taylor - 00:57:47

• Government Shutdown: Averted another Government shutdown. This is probably the lowest production Congress in decades. There’s a chance we get 6 of these bills passed next week. After that, have to make progress on tax credits in March. On foreign aid side, likely to get attached to Defense spending Bill in March to get done.