Good Morning, Josh Steiner commented on the end of supplemental employment benefits will likely push more workers into the workforce. We'll see if that helps with a tight Health Care labor market, but we think any help will be modest. Send us an email if you have any questions/feedback or would like to see/discuss any of the data - HealthCareTeam@Hedgeye.com.
Key Call Out
The gap in Health Care Employment and related metrics persisted in August, but it's significant that Delta Variant didn't put growth into an all out stall. The sequential change at 39K was the second lowest of the year, but we're not seeing the same magnitude as the December COVID wave where sequential growth was half that rate. GoodRx posted a note (see below for more) saying that routine care is finally returning. Post the current Delta wave, we think the reopen will finally take hold, and the "snapback+" will resume, which includes volume from deferred and likely higher acuity care. Finding healthcare employees to service the volume could become a blood sport.
Position Monitor
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NEWS & POSITION MONITOR/WATCHLIST COMPANY UPDATEs
GDRX - Prescription Drug Fills Bounced Back This Summer, With Lifestyle and Beauty Medications High on Americans’ Pharmacy Lists (GDRX Research). Is this what we wanted to see from GDRX 30-60 days ago? Sort of, but you can see the uneven nature of the recovery in what GDRX is seeing an uptick in (mental health makes a ton of sense) - the article is a pretty good, quick read: "According to research from GoodRx, prescription fills have begun to return to an expected rate. But medications for some conditions are seeing larger spikes than the rest. Specifically, fills for acne, weight loss, and eyelash growth medications are higher than average. And on top of that, fills for depression and topical corticosteroids are also seeing larger-than-average increases, indicating what Americans may have been prioritizing as restrictions eased."
QDEL / ABT / CVS - Quidel to Bring QuickVue At-Home OTC COVID-19 Tests To CVS Pharmacy (PR). "QuickVue® At-Home OTC COVID-19 rapid antigen tests available without a prescription at CVS Pharmacy locations nationwide and online at CVS.com. Quidel reports a surge in demand for both its Sofia® and QuickVue® COVID-19 rapid antigen tests." As we've noted recently, there's huge demand for testing (DGX+) and now at-home tests are selling out everywhere.There are nuances to using them correctly, as we noted when we read that ABT's at-home kit was selling out. Whether you like the utility of these tests or not, they are a big thing now w/ consumers: At home tests are selling out, but are you using them correctly? For this QDEL test: "Positive results agree with PCR 83.5% of the time, and negative results agreeing 99.2% of the time."
BAX / HRC - Baxter to Acquire Hillrom, Expanding Connected Care and Medical Innovation Globally (PR). It's official. We had removed HRC from our short bias list a while back, thankfully, because the thesis just wasn't playing out and the stock hadn't yet run away from us. It looks like there's a heavy RPM and at-home component to this deal: "The combination is also expected to accelerate the companies’ expansion into digital and connected care solutions that are increasingly enabling patients with access to hospital-level care at home or in other care settings."
AAPL - From diabetes to fertility: 6 things to know about Apple's plans for its watch (Becker's / WSJ). Apple and others continue to try and meet consumers' health care needs with things they use every day - phones and watches. "Apple is planning to expand its health features on its Apple Watch, including a thermometer that helps users with fertility planning and a tool that alerts users when their blood pressure is increasing, according to a Sept. 1 report by The Wall Street Journal." Taking temperature for ovulation cycles is kind of cool and we can see how that'd be helpful/convenient, if consumers are comfortable with Apple knowing that info, but "noninvasive ways to detect blood glucose levels and using the watch as a cuffless blood-pressure monitor (being researched)" could me monstrous. We will continue to keep an eye on diabetes tech due to implications for DRIO and Livongo (TDOC), among others.
MicroQuads*
As a reminder, if you have questions about the MicroQuad process, please try to find ~20 minutes to watch our Dec 30, 2020 call replay: Process & Utility of the Hedgeye Health Care #MicroQuads - CLICK HERE for event details (includes video link and materials link).
Calendar
All data available upon request. Please reach out to HealthCareTeam@Hedgeye.com with any feedback or inquiries.
Have a great day out there!
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
203-562-6500 x145
ttobin@hedgeye.com
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LinkedIn
Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
203-562-6500 x127
jvenneri@hedgeye.com
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LinkedIn
William McMahon
Analyst
203-562-6500 x145
wmcmahon@hedgeye.com
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LinkedIn
*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
