Please join us for our weekly Position Monitor Update call at 11:30 AM ET today. We’ll provide updates on our Microquads, Position Monitor, Telehealth Field Work, stance on ONEM and ILMN, and more! Last week was a busy one, capped off by health care SPAC HCCO and SOC Telemed completing their business combination. While smaller and more niche than TDOC and AMWL, we look forward to having another public comp to scrutinize in one of the hottest segments of health care this year (HCCO/SOC Telemed shares and warrants begin trading on the NASDAQ today: TLMD and TLMDW, respectively).
Also, as of Friday’s close, the data suggest that the post-COVID recovery cycle is complete for our universe.
Position Monitor Update:
- TDOC LVGO AMWL Field Notes last week highlighted the reasons to like both Amwell and Teladoc as COVID continues to spread across the U.S. (see below for a bit more from our interview on Friday, October 30th).
- ONEM remains a BEST IDEA Long. We continue to like this hybrid story, as the data and feedback from executives remain positive.
- ILMN 3Q20 Earnings Results beat lowered guidance handily. The recovery post-COVID seems to provide multiple tailwinds heading into 2021. Grail is an expensive acquisition, but ILMN appears to be in a win/win situation.
- Weekly Microquad Update – The fundamental momentum appears to be waning given the inputs for our microquad data. Forward estimates have been decelerating since peaking in August, and “peak recovery” has clearly turned negative. As we put 3Q20 behind us, there are 2 long quarters to traverse before we get to “easy” COVID comps.
- Health Care Macro Data Update – This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Personal Consumption Expenditure for Healthcare. We’ll review key series representing the core parts of the U.S. Medical Economy.
Health Care Estimates/Revision Trend: It looks like the transition from Quad 2 -> Quad 3 – i.e., the recovery - is complete.
For our Position Monitor stocks, here’s how the Microquad setup looks:
Here are the POSTIVE & NEGATIVE revision trends:
LAST WEEK
Our interview with Amnon Givesh and field checks earlier in the week highlighted a few crucial trends/topics to keep in-mind as we analyze how telehealth/telemedicine and remote patient monitoring evolve. Here are three to consider:
- The Amazon call out for prescription delivery to the home (delivery people must be able to get into the house if nobody is home), and rationale for further retail partnerships or device M&A were especially interesting.
- AMWL's modules are valuable, but nothing in telehealth is highly sophisticated - it's all about the integration and workflow, influenced by the backend architecture. It will take Epic a couple of years to get its modules on par with Amwell's (Epic’s proprietary telehealth system is a threat).
- Simple, reliable solutions that provide a good experience for consumers will win (thus Doximity’s visit volume during the height of the pandemic and universal acknowledgement of ONEM's positioning).
PKI reported last month, but we’re calling out the following chart because of the read-through to Natera, which reports later this week (11/5). PKI’s life sciences tools and diagnostics segments saw positive volume despite births trending negative, which is similar to our claims index trend.
News Related to Position Monitor & Microquad Names or Trends We’re Tracking:
- Recognizing the value of telehealth in its infancy – This resonates given our recent interviews. It’s a quick read – just a few questions for Sentara’s CEO, Howard Kern, about how they got started w/ an eICU 20 years ago.
- Interview with Walmart Health's Osborne – We can’t forget that Walmart is spending aggressively on health care initiatives, partnered with Oak Street, etc. and “has only grown since the launch of its first center.” In addition to targeting 20+ centers open by the end of ’21, “Walmart has also made a push into health insurance by launching a Medicare-focused brokerage and teaming with Clover Health on co-branded Medicare Advantage plans.”
- High-depth African genomes inform human migration and health – “…whole genome sequencing analyses of 426 people … uncovered more than 3 million previously undescribed variants…”
Earnings/Events This Week (Position Monitor Names in Bold):
|
Ticker |
Company Name |
Event Date |
Event Type |
Details |
|
HSIC |
Henry Schein, Inc. |
11/2/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
HUM |
Humana, Inc. |
11/3/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, 6:30am ET |
|
ADUS |
Addus HomeCare Corporation |
11/3/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
RCM |
R1 RCM Inc. |
11/3/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
TRHC |
Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc. |
11/4/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
PODD |
Insulet Corporation |
11/4/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
PRAH |
PRA Health Sciences, Inc. |
11/4/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
HOLX |
Hologic, Inc. |
11/4/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
TECH |
Bio-Techne Corporation |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
1Q 2021, BMO |
|
CHNG |
Change Healthcare Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
1Q 2021, BMO |
|
ZTS |
Zoetis, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
LHCG |
LHC Group, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
TNDM |
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
GH |
Guardant Health Inc |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
ICUI |
ICU Medical, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
EVH |
Evolent Health, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
MTD |
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
IRTC |
iRhythm Technologies, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
ATRC |
AtriCure, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
AMN |
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
USPH |
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
NTRA |
Natera Inc |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
NVTA |
InVitae Corp |
11/5/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, AMC |
|
CVS |
CVS Health Corp |
11/6/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
MD |
MEDNAX, Inc. |
11/6/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
ELAN |
Elanco Animal Health, Inc. |
11/6/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
HMSY |
HMS Holdings Corp. |
11/6/2020 |
Earnings |
3Q 2020, BMO |
|
HRC |
Hill-Rom Holdings, Inc. |
11/6/2020 |
Earnings |
4Q 2020, BMO |
All data available upon request. Please reach out to HealthCareTeam@Hedgeye.com with any feedback or inquiries.
Have a great day out there!
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
203-562-6500 x145
ttobin@hedgeye.com
Twitter
LinkedIn
Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
203-562-6500 x127
jvenneri@hedgeye.com
Twitter
LinkedIn
William McMahon
Analyst
203-562-6500 x145
wmcmahon@hedgeye.com
Twitter
LinkedIn
